Probability Cones
Probability Cones projects a statistical-deviation fan from any anchored origin into the future, with Standard, Laplace, and outlier-resilient Absolute (MAD) deviations. Joe's own correction stands: these are deviations, not distributions — the 68-95-99.7 rule does not apply to price, and deviation alone never implies reversal. Cones are for exits, not entries.
Features
Three Deviation Measures
Standard, Laplace Stdev, and Absolute MAD. They cover normal, fat-tailed, and outlier-heavy regimes. Mean is selectable.
Calendar-Smart Anchoring
Anchor by bars back, by date, or by higher timeframe, with offset. Origins land out-of-sample at period starts.
Mean Drift Control
Project the drifting mean forward. Or freeze the starting mean and isolate pure deviation expansion.
Exit Discipline Rules
The second-deviation playbook. Losers exit. Winners get managed. Flat stays flat. That is how cones become risk procedure.
Stepped Value Lines
Horizontal lines per timestep give exact forecast values. No curve estimates.
Community Battle-Tested
Member testing of distribution fits (STD vs Laplace vs Asymmetric Laplace) shaped the lineup.